Cee Lo's Song -- Obama Parody
—Ace
From Stuiec, Obama's outreach effort to disenchanted young voters:
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Realignment: Young Voters Maturing Early Under Obama, Abandoning Democrats
—Ace
The college vote is up for grabs this year — to an extent that would have seemed unlikely two years ago, when a generation of young people seemed to swoon over Barack Obama.Though many students are liberals on social issues, the economic reality of a weak job market has taken a toll on their loyalties: far fewer 18- to 29-year-olds now identify themselves as Democrats compared with 2008.
...
Philip Stricker, 21, a biology major who voted for Mr. Obama but says he has not been paying much attention to politics lately, uses a nontechnical term to describe the phenomenon.
“There’s a vibe,” he said on a recent afternoon, while pumping weights at the gym. “Right now it seems like Republicans just care a lot more than Democrats.”
The actual numbers linked are at Pew.
From a 32% advantage to a 14% advantage, and guess what, most of the Democratic ones ain't even voting this year.
As a near-Millennial myself, now 29 years old (well, I will be 29 in November), it heartens me that so many of my Generation Z'ers are seeing the light.
Or, as we now all call "light," we're now seeing the lizzle-brizzle.
OMG: "Temper Tantrum" Makes First Appearance In Media, Two Months Out From Election
—Ace
In 1994, Peter Jennings at least had the decency to wait until his boys lost to announce "tonight, the nation threw a temper-tantrum."
Bernie Goldberg was noting this on O'Reilly last week -- this time, they're not even waiting. They can see it coming, so they're getting out their recriminations over their rejection early. Precriminations for prejection, I guess.
I linked Eugene "I have no obvious qualifications" Robinson's headline earlier, but I must link it again, now that Matt Lewis informs me he is so fucking stupid he trotted out Peter Jennings' infamous line, without even being knowing enough to realize what he was doing.
Voters appear to be so fed up with the Democrats that they're ready to toss them out in favor of the Republicans -- for whom, according to those same polls, the nation has even greater contempt. This isn't an "electoral wave," it's a temper tantrum.... In the punditry business, it's considered bad form to question the essential wisdom of the American people. But at this point, it's impossible to ignore the obvious: The American people are acting like a bunch of spoiled brats.
Matt Lewis notes:
Robinson stresses that his argument is not a "partisan" one, but one can't help but notice the convenient timing: Now that voters are swinging to the Republicans, they are throwing a "temper tantrum." (One wonders whether they were throwing a similar tantrum when they got fed up with Bush and voted-in Barack Obama?) ...
He goes on to claim, of course, that Eugene "It was either this or working at a gas station" Robinson's stupidity is "thought-provoking."
Um, sure. Okay.
He's got video of Eugene "At least I'm not Brent Staples" Robinson offering his 16-year-old analysis, too.
Friday Flame War!
—Ace
Because sometimes you have to get out the bad blood.
Okay, the rules are this is supposed to be funny so no like real, genuine attacks on people.
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Trailer: "Hobo With A Shotgun"
—Ace
The scariest horror movie premise in history.
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How The Stimulus Works On Paper But Nowhere Else
—Ace
Good two part essay on the non-stimulus.
I keep wondering where these guys get their "multiplier" figures from -- they assume (and claim that this is well-established) that if they spend $1 in government money on stimulus, they will get out of that $1.50 in economic activity. Taken to extremes (as credential cretin Paul Krugman sometimes seems to) this results in the absurd result that we should just spend $10 trillion in stimulus because then we'll wind up with an additional $5 trillion in "extra" money, magically "multiplied" out from the initial investment.
First...
Instead of achieving its stated goal of 90% private-sector job creation, ARRA did the exact opposite. More than 95% of any jobs created have been in the government sector (fully outlined on Recovery.gov and confirmed by the Congressional Budget Office).The original document outlining job creation estimates is no longer available on whitehouse.gov. It was replaced with an “updated” document three pages shorter and without the industry-specific job targets originally outlined. Christina Romer, the now-departed head of the Council of Economic Advisors, wrote the original report based on the private-market analysis done by Mark Zandi of Moody’s. Like most economists, neither of these two have experience with spending multipliers, unlike Harvard’s Robert Barro, whose research suggests their multipliers are at least 100% too high.
I think it's that Mark Zandi who's now telling Obama he must not permit the Bush tax cuts to expire, by the way.
San Francisco’s “Presidio Parkway” project has been in the planning stages for nearly 15 years, and is a very worthy infrastructure investment. The funding was expected to be largely at the state and local level, with some federal help. The gap was to be filled with additional tolls and local taxes. Once the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) was implemented, $100 million was allocated to help pay for the Presidio Parkway. No change in the project. No change in jobs. Yet that $100 million is still multiplied by a Keynesian multiplier (1.5-2.5 depending on which Keynesian is doing the math), to estimate the boost it gave GDP. From that incremental GDP, a fantasy job “created or saved” is backed out of the figure.
In other words, this project was going ahead anyway as planned, but the government kicked in some extra money, and based on that, they claimed that all these "new jobs" new economic activity were created.
Except... they weren't. None of this was even close to "new." It had been in the works for 15 freakin' years and was going ahead on schedule.
So what the hell is any sort of claim of "saved or created" or any sort of "multiplier" doing in there?
The most direct reason for the failure of the ARRA was the overly optimistic algebra in its predictions. In order to estimate the job impact of proposed fiscal stimulus, economists multiply government spending by a certain number to extrapolate GDP, and then from there attempt to predict jobs. In the original document predicting ARRA jobs, President Obama’s economics advisor Christina Romer used a multiplier of about 1.57. The Congressional Budget Office used a multiplier of about 2 in its estimate of 2 million jobs created in the fourth quarter of 2009. Harvard Professor Robert Barro estimates that the actual multiplier for World War II stimulus spending was .8, so he uses a lower estimate for ARRA spending of .6. Romer assumed that filling state budget gaps in education and transportation would have doubled the stimulus affect of the industrial buildup around World War II!
I think a couple of weeks ago Geoff (was it you, Geoff?) figured out the actual economic output, according to Obama's own figures, of each dollar in spending, and it turned out to be... just around 0.8.
By The Way: Donations to this site have a 2.2 economic multiplier. Every dollar you donate fuels an additional 1.2 dollars of economic activity in the Extreme Hobo Sports, discount vodka, and Thai tranny Chakra Adjustment industries.
It's pretty much like you're making a 20% profit on every dollar donated. That's free money right in your pocket, yo!
Seriously. This is the "accepted" multiplier figure for AoSHQ donations. "All economists" agree.
More: At Hot Air.
Tapper at ABCNews:
Asked to what degree he regrets his administration's decision to call this Recovery Summer, the president stammered then said, “I don't regret the notion that we are moving forward, but because of the steps that we've taken. And I'm going to have a press conference next week, where, after you guys are able to hear where we're at, we'll be able to answer some specific questions.”
At the end of the post, a link to a Time article, spinning "funemployment" once again. The headline -- no, seriously, this is the headline:
What's Good About Rising Unemployment
RNC, I have suggested previously that you take clips of the media calling Americans racists and Islamophobes and then end it with the text, "You know who they're voting for."
As a sequel to the ad you haven't yet created, I suggest you collect up all these media claims about "Funemployment" and "What's Good About Rising Unemployment" and "America is Back!" and end with the same text. There was also a New York Times article noting that for the few Americans who do have jobs, a recession or depression is kind of good, because, hey, everything's on sale, right?
Also at Hot Air: A German economist says Obama's too "European."
His idea is that Europe's homogeneous societies make socialism plausible. It doesn't work, really, but it works better than generally experienced. America, on the other hand, is highly heterogeneous, so it doesn't work.
I was actually thinking about this idea the other day. My idea was that in a homogeneous society, where most families are part of the shared culture, there may be a much higher social imperative to work, beyond mere economics. That is, if everyone's on the same page, pushing the same bourgeois value of labor and effort, it will significantly dampen the morally-corrosive effects of welfare and such (the main morally corrosive effect? You can get paid for not working so why be a chump?).
If you're going to substantially reduce the economic/survival imperative of useful employment, you'd better have some powerful substitute for that imperative. And as that substitute, social or otherwise, dissolves away, bad things happen.
That can really break down fast, though. Even in Europe, it's not working as it once did. It has taken a while, but over the generations each new generation has gotten more comfortable with the idea of being on the dole. Whatever was going on in Europe, they didn't stop the morally corrosive effect of welfare, they merely slowed it to occur over five generations instead of two (as happened in America, more or less).
By the way, no, I'm not just talking about blacks. Take any poor white community and remove both the economic penalty and the social penalty for not working and in a generation or two you're going to have a culture of dependency and sloth. We've got that now. When people mock a certain type of white-trash culture, it's not because they're poor -- it's because they're not respectable. They've begun, or completed, casting off the normal social codes that prevent sloth and entitlement and champion initiative and self-reliance.
I think that's what this Kraut is getting at.
You never want to rely on a Kraut's analysis too much, though. You start to hear the fanfares of Wagner and then, you know, you're goose-stepping your way through the Arc du Triomph.
Seriously, RNC: Do my ad. WaPo jive-turkey Eugene Robinson just slapped this nasty headline on to his stupid burblings:
The spoiled-brat American electorate
Do my ad. Come on. Make them both pay a price for their tawdry affair. Chain the media to the Democrats and the Democrats to the media and let 'em both drown from the other's weight.
Friday Afternoon Midterm Miscellany
—DrewM.
Friday before Labor Day grab-bag.
Remember pompous Indiana Congressman Baron Hill? Turns out yelling at your constituents will in fact come back to haunt you at election time.
If you're so inclined, here's the website for Todd Young.
I haven't found any recent polls on the race but RCP says it's a toss up.
The head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says he wants to see Obama "turbocharged" and campaigning for candidates this fall.
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chairman Chris Van Hollen (Md.) urged the president to ramp up his efforts on the campaign trail."We've got to get out around the country," Van Hollen said during an appearance on MSNBC. "And the president has got to get turbocharged. He's got to go out and make it very clear what the stakes in this election will be."
The DCCC chairman said he didn't think Obama had underperformed on behalf of Democratic incumbents this fall, but if Democrats wanted to perform the best this fall, the president would need to work tirelessly on behalf of incumbents and candidates.
"I think that he's been laying the groundwork, he's been drawing the contrasts," he said. "And I think that he knows better than anybody that between now and Nov. 2, when people are really going to be paying attention, he's got to be all over the country, making it clear what the choice is."
Yeah, good luck with that plan.
Alas, not everyone shares Van Hollen's enthusiasm for an Obama appearance. Russ Feingold (D-WI) is going to avoid being seen with Obama when POTUS shows up in Milwaukee this weekend. Not to long ago the Senator said, "I will stand with the president of the United States anywhere, anytime, no hesitation. I'm proud of what this president has tried to do,". Apparently just not in his home state, this weekend.
Just two years ago, Obama carried the Badger State by 13%. Now he's toxic to a stalwart liberal. The times they do change quickly.
Just a reminder, yesterday I blogged about the Wisconsin Republican candidate for Senate, Ron Johnson. He seems like a solid conservative candidate and he's giving Feingold a run for his money.
Check out the comments on the post, several Cheesehead Morons chimed in with some local knowledge.
Unemployment Rate at 9.6% for August. A Yawner (mostly).
—Geoff
The BLS released the unemployment rate for August today, which didn't really change much from last month - 9.6% vs. July's 9.5%. That message of "nothing changed" is repeated throughout the report. Frankly, I was looking for something a little more interesting this month - I thought we'd end up at 9.8 or 9.9%. So I went through the stats trying to find out what was shoring up the employment rate.
And I found one thing that changed, and it had changed quite a bit. Turns out it's those damn part-timers who threw me off. The number of part-time employees ballooned by 730K during August - 330K of them forced into part time work by economic conditions. This brought the U-6 unemployment number up to 16.7% - an increase of 0.2 points from last month.
UPDATE: I hope it's obvious that swapping 3/4 of a million full time jobs for part time jobs is not a sign of an improving job market. And as some commenters have pointed out, the unemployment number is still ridiculously high and nothing to "yawn" about. The terrifying part is that the President is promising to do something about it. Mr. President? Please. Just. Stop.
That all said, here's your updated version of The Chart (don't forget that S. Weasel is selling The Chart on t-shirts, coffee mugs, and the like):
Top Headline Comments 9-3-10
—Gabriel Malor
Brand Democrat™ from Slublog.
Sometimes it's best to simply remain where you are
—Genghis
Looks like the projected four-month-long rescue effort of the trapped Chilean miners is about to turn into a reality teevee show. Per The Sydney Morning Herald:
"One of the trapped Chilean miners is going to have some explaining to do after his wife ran into his mistress at the mine's entrance.Britain's Sun newspaper reports the wife of Yonni Barrios was stunned and upset to find his girlfriend also conducting a vigil for him."
Upon hearing this news, Mr. Barrios issued the following statement:
"Really, now that I think about it, there's really no need for any kind of rescue. In fact, it's quite comfortable down here. Yep, I could stay down here as long as possible. No real need to come up to the surface, is there?"
Official Cee Lo Video (You Know, That F Word I Don't Put In Headlines Anymore)
—Ace
Really sweet video, actually!
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Video: Gov. Christie Endorses Mike Castle
—Gabriel Malor
Just posted:
Twelve more days of this.
More: I don't have much to add to what Ace said earlier, except that I'm genuinely puzzled at folks who say they'd rather the seat be Democrat than in the hands of a RINO. Given the number of Senate seats now in play, this is tantamount to declaring that they'd rather have a Democratic Senate than a Republican one.
I'm saying, it might be different if Republicans were going to have control of the Senate anyway. Then, heh, no real harm to letting our "problem Senators" know what we expect in the future. Same thing on the flipside. If the Democrats were going to have insurmountable control of the Senate...again, it doesn't matter so much whether the Democrat or the RINO wins.
But we're talking about taking control of the Senate, something that only now is turning into a real possibility. And that's going to take putting up with folks like Collins and Snowe and Castle. As infuriating as they are, I'd rather put up with them than watch the Democrats run the country into the ground under another two years of Majority Leader Reid (or his successor).
It's just astonishing that folks -- good, genuine, GOP people -- are actually advocating for a path that leads to Democratic majority in the Senate. Over Delaware, a blue state that we have the unimaginably good fortune to be poised to take way from the Democrats until 2014!
Think about it. Turning a Democratic state Republican for long enough that the folks there might actually learn something. Isn't that what we want? Turn the blue states red? Why would we pass up a gift like this?
Why do we want a Republican Senate? Aside from totally crushing the Democrats' spirit, control of the Senate means that our guys will be the chairmen for each committee and subcommittee. This means that they will have control of the calendar. It means that if Obama wants something, he'll have to negotiate with Republicans, rather than his own sycophantic party members.
A concrete example: Do you imagine that Elena Kagan would be a Supreme Court Justice right now if Senator Sessions had been Chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee? Hell no, she wouldn't.
Shock: Ground Zero Mosque Investor Donated to Terrorist Front "Holy Land Foundation"
—Ace
To be fair, before the State Department realized the Holy Land Foundation was a terrorist front.
So, like, this guy couldn't have known or anything. No one could possibly have known that the Holy Land Foundation was really a terrorist front. Because we know all the Muslim money flowing into Palestine was going to buy books & babyfood.
Oh wait, no, that was our money, and oh yeah, Israeli money.
Just a big misunderstanding, really.
One of the key players in Sharif El-Gamal's Mosque near Ground Zero is Egyptian born businessman, Hisham Elzanaty. Fox 5 News has learned exclusively and confirmed with Mr. Elzanaty’s attorney that Elzanaty made a “significant investment” in the development of the mosque near Ground Zero....
Fox 5 News has also learned that in 1999 Hisham Elzanaty sent money to an organization that would later be deemed by the U.S. government to be a terrorist group.
The organization was the Holy Land Foundation for Relief and Development, also known as HLF. The now defunct group’s 1999 tax records show Elzanaty contributed more than $6,000 to HLF.
Two years later, in 2001, HLF was shut down by the federal government and designated as a global terrorist. After a mistrial in 2007, in 2008 five HLF leaders were convicted of providing material support to Hamas.
In related news: Islamaphobes!
I thought this was a pretty snarky/real point by the way:
maybe you can tell me; how's it an issue of religious freedom if the building isn't a mosque but a community center?
Via Cubachi, or "Cubachi," as she's known on Twitter.
Overnight Open Thread
—Maetenloch
Happy Thor's day all. Which reminds me - tonight might be a good time to get your hammers out and oil and polish them in preparation for Nov. 2nd.
What It Looks And Sounds Like to Fall From Space
Here's video from a camera mounted on one of the solid rocket boosters during a recent space shuttle launch (STS-124). I believe the numbers at the top left are the number of seconds since launch. Not much happens until the 2:00 mark when the SRBs separate at 146,000 feet and then tumble back towards Earth. Via a transducer you can hear the steadily growing roar as the SRB falls through the thin air at that altitude. Eventually the parachutes deploy and 405 seconds after launch the SRB lands in the ocean.
Normally the SRBs are recovered, refurbished, and eventually reused on another shuttle launch. But since STS-135 scheduled for June of next year will be the last shuttle flight, it's unlikely this SRB will ever see space again.
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Football Is Back
—Dave In Texas
So is Pro Football, but that's Sunday (lots of preseason stuff tonight but preseason just ain't all that interesting unless you're follow a particular player or you're done sorting all your socks).
College games tonight are just the usual so so, with a couple of big teams working over a couple of little teams, Miami Florida is kicking the crap out of Florida A&M right now, Ohio State playing Marshall, Pitt against Utah and way out in the Pacific at 11 eastern, USC and Hawaii.
Couple of ranked matchups this weekend, LSU and UNC, and Oregon State against TCU.
Speaking of TCU...
Yes. Yes you can haz cheerleader.
OH. I forgot Iowa State, but in my defense a lot of people do that. Buncha 1AA schools at it tonight too. Thursday night, it's like high school JV.
Obama: Hey, You Know What Might Be a Good Idea To Boost The Economy? A Payroll Tax Holiday
—Ace
Who proposed that? Oh yeah, I did. And so did thirty thousand economists.
Two years ago. On the theory -- see if you can follow this logic, because it gets twisty -- that if you reduce the cost to employers for hiring and maintaining staff, they might actually hire and maintain more staff.
Did you follow that? I know, it's heady. Let me try again:
If costs for a thing go down, you can afford more of it.
No? Still too complicated?
Here, here's a talking sandwich then.
Hey, fucklebuns! It's easy as baby-shit, see?
If hookers lower their prices by 5% you can buy 21
cooch-whores for the cost of 20! What are you, touched?!
You get it? Yeah, well, see, Obama didn't get it, and I think they had to invite time-travelling baloney sandwich Johnny Coldcuts to the White House to make him understand.
But now, facing a double-dip Great Recession largely of his own design, suddenly he's willing to confront all sorts of disturbing scenarios, such as the bizarre notion that when taxes are reduced, economic activity increases.
The staff-level discussions are in preliminary stages. But with the unemployment rate expected to rise again in new jobs numbers due out Friday, such a move could serve both to spur hiring and to combat Republican charges that Obama’s tax policies would hurt small businesses.More spending on infrastructure – particularly transportation projects – is also under discussion, sources said. But a person familiar with the talks said it would be easier for a package consisting purely of tax cuts to “avoid the stain of a ‘bailout’ or ‘stimulus’ label.”
I had a number crunching blogger run the numbers for me, and he said that the "Stimulus" of around $900 billion could have paid for a full and complete payroll tax holiday for employers for 2 1/2 years, or a full payroll tax holiday for both businesses and employees for 1 1/4 years.
$300 billion is... well, it's a lot less, isn't it?
Meanwhile Mike Pence says extend the Bush tax cuts for everyone. And then some.
"Well, we're going to stay focused on Election Day. But I think before that, we're going to continue to demand that this administration and this Congress make it clear that no American will see a tax increase in January of next year," Pence said during an appearance on CNBC."So the first thing that we will do is try to preserve the tax relief of 2001 and 2003 for all Americans — for all small businesses and family farmers. But we also want to look at the kind of across-the-board tax relief, the kind of tax relief that will encourage capital formation, to get this economy moving again," the Indiana Republican and potential presidential candidate added.
On Twitter, Steven Hayes is writing to Gibbs, confronting him with Obama's past declarations that raising taxes during a recession would be disastrous.
Hey-- Toss My Friend A Little Vote-Help, Again?
—Ace
I didn't tell you what happened last time because it was a downer -- he lost. A couple of films started getting big votes and he lost.
Thought, eh, maybe not mention that, since it's a downer.
But, now there's another round of voting to send the remaining short films to the finals.
If you don't mind -- check out The GameRev (under "T," because it's a dumb list) or just vote for it on my recommendation.
Wisconsin Senate Race
—DrewM.
Ace has spent a lot of time going over the reasons why conservatives should suck it up for Mike Castle in Delaware and not take a flyer on Christine O'Donnell. I thought it might be nice to focus on another race where a novice candidate, businessman Ron Johnson, seems to be doing well with a conservative message...in Wisconsin. Against Russ Feingold.
The Real Clear Politics average has the race a tie but Johnson is a self financing candidate who is spending a lot of money to generate name recognition and get his message out.
What message is that? According to his website, Johnson is:
Pro 2nd Amendment rights
“Criminals should be fearful of the ramifications of our nation’s laws, not law-abiding citizens who exercise their gun ownership rights protected by our Constitution.” – Ron JohnsonRon will be a staunch defender of our right to keep and bear arms.
Ron does not support licensing or registration of firearms, and the people of Wisconsin can trust him not to play politics with our Constitutional rights.
Unlike Russ Feingold, who voted for every anti-gun justice on the Supreme Court today, Ron will only support Supreme Court Justices who correctly interpret the Constitution and protect our right to keep and bear arms.
In favor of repealing ObamaCare.
“And in their spare time, contrary to the very vocal wishes of the American public, they passed legislation that will do great harm to the finest health care system in the world. The Health Care Bill is the greatest assault on our freedom in my lifetime. It must be repealed.”
In favor of less spending and lower taxes.
Ron believes we reduce spending by reducing the size of government....
The more government spends, the more government will eventually have to take from you, your children, your grandchildren, and great-grandchildren. Robbing the bank accounts of future generations of Americans while creating unsustainable debt is a threat to our freedom and we must stand together to stop it.
There's more but it's all the right stuff.
On the surface, the guy sounds great. I'm not intimately familiar with Wisconsin politics so maybe there are some Cheesehead Morons around who can put me some knowledge about something I'm missing.
Normally a Republican in Wisconsin wouldn't generate much interest or attention but with Kos' own pollster saying the Badger State (along with California and Washington) is now the battleground where Democrats have to make their stand, I think we should start taking a look at the guy.
First reaction? I like.
Added bonus, at least in this TV spot he comes off as refreshingly normal.
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Wonderful: Republican Gubernatorial Candidate Scott Makes Racially-Charged Running Mate Pick In Obvious Racial Appeal to Voters
—Ace
(Link to Hot Air.) We just can't get out of our own way, can we?
His new running mate is a veteran (super-conservative, then) and, I hear, a record of speaking very critically about Jesse Jackson and other civil rights leaders.
Do we really need to play into the media's hands with picks like this?
Pat Caddell: "This Is Pat F'n' Caddell Talking At You, Numbnuts, And I'm Here To Tell You The MFM Is Sabotaging Obama"
—Ace
I’d like to share another point from my conversation with Caddell. Reflecting on the Carter years, Caddell says that when Carter stumbled, the press hounded him. Obama, he says, does not face similar media criticism.“Obama has an uncontested narrative,” Caddell says. This, he believes, is a short-term advantage for Obama — it enables him to coast unchallenged — but a long-term weakness. “With many members of the press cheerleading for his success, he does not get the same kind of pushback that modern presidents — Reagan, Clinton, Carter — normally received.” Obama, he says, ends up “unaccustomed to adapting and changing along with the country . . . he manages to avoid dealing with political reality but struggles to find a narrative — any narrative — that actually connects.”
This sort of point has been made before. I think either Krystal or Goldberg (or both) pushes this idea, that the MFM loves Democrats to Death.
But this is Pat Freakin' Caddell here, Jack.
Thanks to Arthur.
Oh Man...
—Ace
Look, I hate to be the bearer of unfortunate truths but...
O'Donnell tells THE WEEKLY STANDARD that while she does pay rent on what is technically her legal residence with campaign funds, she also has a separate permanent residence, the location of which she won't disclose "for security reasons." O'Donnell said that her campaign office and home were vandalized in 2008, and she's fearful that her opponents will do the same this year. Says O'Donnell:They’re following me. They follow me home at night. I make sure that I come back to the townhouse and then we have our team come out and check all the bushes and check all the cars to make sure that—they follow me.That’s what’s disgusting, as you can see from the YouTube videos. They knock on the door at all hours of the night. They’re hiding in the bushes when I’m at candidate forums. In 2008 they broke into my home. They vandalized my home. They wrote nasty notes on my front door, on my front porch. They jeopardized my safety. They did the same thing to our campaign office. They broke into our campaign office. They vandalized our campaign office. They stole files. My campaign signs that had my picture—they put a spear in my mouth poked out my eyes, and cut out the part of my heart, and wrote nasty names all over those campaign signs.
I would be a fool to be pressured into disclosing where I live, when I know that the stakes are even higher this time. What makes me think they wont do the same distasteful things they did in 2008 when the stakes are even higher, when we’re even more viable. I mean come on, John, you’re a class act. You don’t want to—you know that this is a security issue. You know what they’re capable of.
Is O'Donnell suggesting that Castle supporters vandalized her office in 2008, when she was running for Senate against Joe Biden? “I’m not sure who did it, but I know for a fact that Mike Castle and [Delaware GOP chairman] Tom Ross were campaigning against me,” O’Donnell says. “They’ve been sabotaging my candidacy since 2008. So who knows who did it back then.” O'Donnell says there are no police reports of the 2008 break-in because she didn't want to make an issue of it at the time. She claims to have pictures of vandalized signs.
She also won't rule out a third party spoiler bid, should she lose.
More about this candidacy at Townhall. Mark Levin continues supporting her... but only because he hates the living guts of Mike Castle. Which, yeah, I get it.
But.
But.
Jim Geraghty links this "trainwreck" interview, which I don't think is really a trainwreck.
The problem is the interviewer is so antagonistic it comes off as an ambush, which makes her seem sympathetic. A lot of it is quibbling over her self-puffery about "winning two counties" (out of three) in Delaware in 2008. (She didn't, and didn't even come close in one of them.) But, whatever, insurgent candidate, sometimes you have to bend the truth, maybe.
To be fair, she also says she had nothing at all to do with that Liberty.com gay-affair thing, and disavows it, saying "Take the high road."
That's perfectly possible. When you're a little itty-bitty candidate you can't be too choosy about who will work for you, since no one wants to. You might have to settle for the bottom-feeders.
Still, all that, sure, sure, the system is pounding an underdog upstart, yeah, but... there's this following business.
I'm sure this all appears very unseemly to O'Donnell's supporters. The establishment media all ganging up on this upstart to aid a RINO.
I know it looks ugly.
All I can say is... Well, either she was followed and vandalized and all that in 2008 by Mike Castle (who wasn't even running against her; and her own bid was a forlorn-hope give-up by the party) or she wasn't.
It's kind of one or the other.
One thing, though, is that there are "campaign trackers" who go around with videocameras taping candidates as often as possible. To catch them in a "Macacca" moment. So it's not at all kooky to suppose she is being taped in public, frequently, by Mike Castle's people.
In fact, that's surely happening.
But... it's also sort of SOP at this point. It's not something to get all weird about. It sucks, yeah, but this is how the game is played. Everyone's taping everyone, hoping for that golden gaffe.
To defend her a little more, too: I'm told that in that video where her body-people get in the faces of tapers -- yeah, those guys are probably Castle campaign trackers.
So, in that case, it's really not a thug jumping ugly with an average citizen. It's one political pro getting in the face of another political pro. Kind of like a papparazzi knocking over a person to get a picture -- if that person is an ordinary citizen, we say it's bad. If the person knocked over, though, is just another papparazzi, we say, who cares. It's how they play their dirty game.
But, still. Altogether: I just don't find this candidacy credible.
Oh My Dear Sweet Lord: Rightwing Tea Party "Anti-Immigrant" Extremist Turns Out To Have Been Convicted For... Human Smuggling of Illegal Immigrants
—Ace
So... this guy's a rightwinger because in his general screed against parasitic human babies he mentioned he didn't like "anchor babies" either?
Turns out his relationship with illegal immigrants was a little more complex than that.
James Lee, the bomb-laden gunman who was killed by police in the lobby of the Discovery Channel, was once convicted and imprisoned for smuggling illegal immigrants into the country from Mexico.
The revelation that Lee had once smuggled illegals contrasts sharply with a hate-filled manifesto he left behind in which he describes illegal immigrants as "disgusting filth" and their children as "anchor baby filth."
Note that ABCNews leaves you with the impression that that was his sole motivation. They do not mention the leftwing eco-terrorist agitprop at all. To ABC, and its made-ignorant readers, Lee was an anti-immigration extremist, period.
Precisely as I said he would be.
New 'Contract With America' On The Way?
—LauraW.
Stumbled on this last night while flipping channels. Watch Juan Williams take a breath and lean back a little when he hears the word 'contract' after the .40 mark.
For some reason this made an impression on me last night. This morning I remembered Juan's reaction more dramatic than it really was.
Ah, well.
That's what happens when you're up late making smoothies out of Lysol and lawn mushrooms.
If there is a new Contract- and there doesn't have to be- I just hope it's not stupid.
Republicans have a great opportunity right now not to be lame-o.
Guys.
Please.
Don't be lame-o.
This Ad Is Genuinely Funny
—Ace
Genuinely.
"I love what I'm getting out of you, Blue Cougar!"
Obviously, I agree wholeheartedly. I always find a danger with conservatives is this: Because we all sort of... are rejectivists of the system, we sort of have a distaste for conventional politics, we look down on that as sort of join-ey, something liberal.
We sort of want to engage in para-politics, something akin to politics but not actually part of the political process. As the ad mentions: Writin' emails. Lettin' liberals know our home is our castle.
I asked my friend steve_in_hb why he never voted, despite having some fairly firm political beliefs, and I think he encapsulated the rejectivist conservative opinion on this pretty succinctly. He said:
"Voting is for fags."
And it's one of those jokes, you know, like most jokes: Yes, it's a joke. Yes, his tongue is firmly in cheek. Yes, he was just trying to get a laughing rise out of me (and succeeded).
But yes: It is also sort of true.
Now, in a serious way, he wouldn't say this; but he would say something about the pointlessness of a corrupt system and so on.
This is always, always a danger for conservatives, and what keeps our representation below what it ought to be: a rejectivism that leads many to not even bother to vote at all, despite having very, very strong opinions about which candidate ought to win what race.
Friends, the time for living off the political grid is over. It's time to engage.
Voting is a right won for us by force of arms, by the blood and courage of strong men, and a responsibility passed down to us from them, our debt back to them. We honor them by voting and we dishonor them by standing on the sidelines, passively allowing our political destinies to be determined by other people.
Good men died for this right, and killed for it. It is precious as blood. It's not to be cast aside as a cheap bauble.
I really do read too many people expounding on the Constitution and then, when asked, stating that voting is beneath their dignity.
I don't know. Seems to me there's a major disconnect there. Unless you've earned the right by other means (such as serving the country's armed forces), I'm really not sure you've earned the right to disclaim about the Constitution if you can't even be bothered to take a ten minute trip to the post office and sign up to be counted as a Citizen of the United States of America.
Ah: A way to put steve's joke is this: Voting is for goody-goods who believe in "civic duty" and all that rot.
Conservatives, often, are very anti-bullshit; they like cutting bullshit out of their lives. But for too many, they toss "voting" into the bullshit column (and then wonder how we wind up with the Mensa Chapter Presidents we call Senators).
Conservatives like to style themselves (and frequently are) rebels, sort of outlaws, sort of loose cannon mavericks who play by their own rules and get their badges and guns taken away every week from their constipated Sergeant when they blow up a truck full of liquid nitrogen in pursuit of a hot-rod smugging Krugerrands and sex-slaves.
And then that leads to showing "rebellion" by not participating in voting.
I think what this ad is getting at isn't portraying conservatives as bumpkins, but this sort of Rebel Without a Voter Card as a bumpkin, a bumpkin who's deluding himself into thinking he's actually "teaching the system a lesson" by writin' emails and otherwise consigning himself to political irrelevancy.
McConnell: No Way I Get Displaced as Leader Next Year; I've Already Got the Votes Lined Up
—Ace
I wouldn't usually link this (kind of minor and speculative and divisive) except I was just having this exact discussion in the O'Donnell/Castle thread.
It's no sure thing, despite him brave-facing it:
Though several Tea Party-backed Republican challengers – including, most recently, Alaska Senate candidate Joe Miller – have said they won’t commit yet to backing McConnell, fueling speculation of a possible leadership challenge, the Kentucky Republican said he isn’t worried about such chatter.
I would bet on McConnell, if I were a betting man, but I'm not a betting man, because there's no such thing as a sure thing. And he's not a sure thing. He has a big group of Tea Party candidates coming in -- some, like Rand Paul, who had to defeat his own hand-picked candidate -- and others just generally opposed to business-as-usual in DC, more shake-it-up types. You add them to Jim DeMint's Hooker-Lipstick-Red Caucus and there is some chance of a new leader (minority leader or, more likely, majority leader).
Now, the GOP is notoriously antagonistic to drama and palace coups and people jumping in line, but, as you all know, the party has become a bit more unexpected and dramatic lately.
I'd bet on McConnell, but I wouldn't bet much. FWIW, I think... I'm meh on him. I don't dislike him, I don't resent him, I understand the need for tactics and stuff, but I also don't really find him much of a spokesman.
He doesn't rev me up. I don't think he revs anyone up. He sort of seems somnolent by genetic disposition and conscious choice. Whenever I have trouble sleeping I count Mitch McConnell's jumping over a fence.
Still, all this excitement and stuff in the party -- we've got a lot of it. We might want to avoid making things too exciting. We're casting a Senate, not The Expendables here.
Israel-Palestinian Talks A Success Because....They Agreed To More Talks
—DrewM.
This is the beauty of diplomacy (smart and otherwise)...there's always another day, another meeting, another agreement which will save the day.
The next round of talks has been scheduled for the 14th and 15th of this month and according to CNN's Ed Henry, that's apparently a big deal.
Officials close to #Mideast talks told me last wk key barometer of success would be whether there was specific sked for 2nd round of talks
Why so soon for round 2? Because things are going so well or they just wanted to shoehorn them in before Israel's self-imposed settlement freeze expires on the 24th?
Meanwhile back in the real world, Hamas says, have fun in DC guys but don't expect anything to change back home.
Operations of resistance will continue and the measures by the occupation and Fatah will not block them," said Hamas spokesman Sami Abu Zuhri.Abbas is to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the State Department later on Thursday for the first direct peace talks for 20 months, but Hamas remains opposed to negotiations with Israel.
"Mahmoud Abbas does not have the right to speak for the Palestinians, nor to represent them and therefore, any results will not be binding on the Palestinian people," Zuhri said.
This is the problem with the American and European approach to Israel and the Palestinians. The Israelis have been told for decades they must make tangible concessions to people like Arafat and Abbas in the name of peace. In return all they ever get are promises the Palestinian side can not and will not be able to deliver on. That's assuming the Palestinians really ever wanted to honor their commitments, which is debatable at best.
Going back to the Madrid Conference, the Oslo Accords, the Wye River Plantation summit, the Gaza pullout, the Gaza war, and even the latest Hamas attack leading up to this round of US presidential legacy building talks, Israel is simply held to a different standard than the Palestinians.
This may make for good political theater in Washington, London and Paris but in the real world, it means nothing will ever change. If you really want to see "peace in the Mideast", it needs to begin with forcing the Palestinians to get their act together internally and accept Israel as the Jewish state. Pull that off and the rest might just follow.
Until then? Set another meeting date and declare victory. Rinse, lather and repeat.
Oh, No: Coast Guard Responding To Another Possible Rig Explosion in Gulf
—Ace
A possible explosion; I don't really understand why there is some doubt about whether there was an explosion or not.
All 13 workers are accounted for.
Thanks to circa.
More On Rightwing Survivalist Tea Party Extremist James J. Lee
—Ace
This Ain't Hell actually talked to him at a protest.
He was carrying the sorts of signs that rightwingers are known for.
Thanks to DrewM.
Romer Scuttles While the Job Market Burns
—Geoff
 |
| My GDP-jobs correlation is crap? Run away!! |
In fact, she admitted more than that - she finally 'fessed up to what we'd been telling her since the Inauguration: she and her cronies didn't have a clue as to what they were doing.
...we, like virtually every other forecaster, failed to anticipate how violent the recession would be in the absence of policy, and the degree to which the usual relationship between GDP and unemployment would break downI emphasized the last part because all of their predictions, and all of their claims of jobs saved, have been based on the assumption that the old relationships between GDP and unemployment still hold.
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Stay Classy, Christine O'Donnell
—Ace
She didn't make the charge; a firm employed by her did. She's not commenting.
A conservative firm until recently employed by the Delaware primary campaign of conservative Christine O'Donnell against Rep. Mike Castle casually leveled an extraordinary — and unsupported — charge of a gay affair against Castle in a video posted to its website today, the ugliest salvo yet in an extremely bitter primary.
Walker said he had no compunction about repeating the rumor about Castle because "he's a threat to American sovereignty."He didn't offer any evidence for the claim.
She cannot win in Delaware, which is usually among the ten most Democratic states in the union. Allow me to be a little elistist -- what in this odd biography says "serious candidate for Senator"?
I was already predisposed to endorsing Castle, feeling this was a bridge too far (or a RINO too far), and then I recalled who Christine O'Donnell was -- she's a fill-in guest on Hannity and other talk shows. She has always grated on me, because she always seems pretty unprepared (or just not really a strong thinker), and tends to just repeat the same three or four obvious bullet-points.
If I have turned the channel off almost every time she's been on, I do not see how she is going to wear well in Democrat-stronghold Delaware.
When we were trying to get Scott Brown elected, some objected that he was a RINO. I said at the time: This is a gift from God. It is unseemly to look down one's nose at a gift from God and ask, "Couldn't you have gotten something better?"
I do not know why it is that Mike Castle is running 12 points or so ahead of his Democratic rival. It could be partly due to his despised RINOism, of course. And it's also due to personal characteristics which he alone possesses and cannot be transferred to O'Donnell -- like, as the state's only at-large Representative (the state has only one Rep.), he knows everyone in the state, has campaigned statewide nine times before. For whatever reason, the voters trust him, seem to like him. (Well, "like" as much as one can like a politician.)
For whatever reason, they've decided he's okay by them. And preferable to a Democrat. And so he polls 10-12 points ahead.
Meanwhile the latest Rasmussen poll puts O'Donnell ten points behind Coons.
And on that point, I ask, where is the plausible pathway to candidate growth? What is the realistic plan for getting O'Donnell up from ten points down to at least even?
Here's the trouble:
1. Ideologically, she is strident and hardcore. This means she's out of sync with Delaware. In 2008, Joe Biden trounced her (no one really wanted to run against him, except O'Donnell) 65%-35%, his largest margin of victory ever... and voters also sort of knew he wasn't even going to be Senator, he was going to be Vice President.
2. Often a compelling biography can make up for some mismatch here (like, Joe Miller's West Point, Bronze Star Desert Storm, Yale Law super-bio), but O'Donnell's is not only not strong, it's noticeably weak. I look at her bio and I sort of see my own. She might as well just say "Sketchy Blogger/Drifter" at the top of the page.
3. A new candidate can often be expected to grow into a good speaker and media-player as she learns the craft, just as a rookie quarterback can grow into the roll. But to the extent Christine O'Donnell has a job at all, it's speaking on FoxNews and CNN when they need someone last-minute. So she does in fact have experience, much more experience than your average neophyte politician. And I'm sorry to say, five or six years at this and she's simply bad at that job, and I cannot for the life of me imagine how she suddenly gets better when we need her to be better.
So where is the plausible pathway for growth? I don't see it. There are three critical areas for candidate success, and she is a... I hate picking on an underdog, and she's a nice lady and all that, but in all three areas she fails. Rather badly.
Now I'm not in love with Mike Castle. He supported cap and tax in the last go-round. That is one my Rubicons... almost my abortion issue, or my 2nd Amendment issue, if you know what I mean. One of my Big Ones. One of the things that get me going emotionally.
I'm not going to tell you he's not a RINO. He is. Straight-up, no chaser. He's a RINO.
But I also know that if he's elected, he votes for a Republican for control of the Senate. (A silly rumor undoubtedly peddled by O'Donnell's supporters notwithstanding.)
That is to say: We cannot win full control of the Senate without a Republican in this seat. This seat has long been one of the seats we were just assuming we would win. Because Castle has been comfortably out front for a long, long time.
This is not some longshot pick-up where it really makes little difference because we have no realistic chance anyway, so might as well swing for the fences. We have been counting this as an easy pick-up. When you read "Republicans will pick up at least 7 seats" this is number two or three on that list, after the gimme Arkansas pick-up.
And we're going to toss this away? For what?
She can't win. Period. So it has to be kept in mind, in doing political calculations: When you vote for her, you are not just voting for someone with a slightly smaller chance of prevailing in the general election. You are voting against someone with a 90% chance of winning in favor of someone with a 0% chance of winning.
Okay, maybe not zero; one can never say zero. Fine. 1%.
The vote for her would not be strategic, or aimed at a plausible victory scenario. It would be pure RINO-punishing (and cutting off one's own nose to spite one's face). If RINO-punishing is the only thing that matters -- and I stress: Castle is a RINO, and I sure the hell can't claim he doesn't deserve to be punished -- then vote for her.
If something more tangible than protest and punishment is sought, vote for the guy who's way out ahead of the Democrat. RINO or not. (And just to be clear-- RINO.)
Mike Castle will vote against us on 30% of stuff. You will not like him. I will not like him.
But I will like him better than the Democrat Coons, voting against us on 88% of stuff. And yeah, in a blue state, with a strong Democratic majority, he can afford to be one of the solid liberal votes for Obama's socialist agenda. Because he is not going to have to worry about losing his seat for voting too liberal.
The pathway to success is to change Blue to Purple, and Purple to Red, and Red to Even Redder. We are doing that. We are trading in RINO Murkowski for a Senator more in sync with a true red state.
But as we trade in, we can't move by more than one color. We can get a purple guy elected to a blue state, a red guy (like Angle) elected to a purple state, and a hooker's-lipstick-red guy elected to a red state.
We cannot get a super-red person elected to a blue state. Period. The anti-Obama factor gives everyone about an 8% bump. Add that to Christine O'Donnell's 35% (from last time) and she gets to 43%.
That's what we call a loss.
Strategically, we go easy on this one, we bank the sure thing and call it progress, because it is progress. If we gamble, we lose. It's not even a gamble. It's just tossing a stack of chips back to the house for no reason.
Uggh: This may be excusable. I know I wouldn't excuse it if she were a Democrat.
I won't lie and say this would be a huge campaign issue. It wouldn't be. But combine this with the "That's the rumor" thuggishness and it begins to paint a rather shabby picture.
So: Bio is out. Ideology is out. Media savvy is out.
Character is.... well, questionable.
What exactly will we be running on, I'd like to know.
That thanks to Gabe.
Top Headline Comments 9-2-10
—Gabriel Malor
Brand Democrat™ from Slublog.
California Senate Debate: Fiorina vs. Boxer
—Gabriel Malor
Above the Post Recap & Review:
That went pretty well. Fiorina made a good introduction to the people of California. Unfortunately, this won't make a big dent in the polls; there was no knock-out punch from either candidate. Mostly because Fiorina didn't try and because Boxer, though she was picking at Fiorina's HP days like mad, couldn't land a solid hit.
Things I didn't know about Fiorina before the debate: She supports the DREAM Act, but not "amnesty." She wants to repeal Roe v. Wade and return to a state-by-state, "let the voters decide" approach to abortion. She wants to repeal DADT. She refused to take a stand on Prop 23, which would overturn California's greenhouse gas emissions scheme.
As I wrote on twitter, she will have made progress with Latinos and independents. But she will lose ground with women. Boxer is going to exploit the heck out of that with paid media in the next two months. Boxer is going to need somebody to turn out to vote, since Democratic voters are generally going to be demoralized, and it's going to be the feminist dog whistle all the way.
I'm disappointed that Fiorina let so many opportunities to hit back on jobs go by. She had a tendency to get caught up in the weeds, drifting around the general area of the issue and spitting out plenty of factoids, but never just spelling it out. Well, okay, she spelled it out once when she said "cut the regulations, cut the taxes and jobs will come." But then she got tangled in talk about "TARP Jr." and "TARP Sr." that probably lost a lot of viewers. And she never came back to that simple message: "you want jobs to come back to California? Cut taxes, cut regulation." My impression was that she was over-prepared on this and thought she had to regurgitate every last factoid she'd memorized. It was the wrong approach.
On the other hand, Boxer certainly said nothing to recommend herself for another six years. She said what Democrats have always said: raise taxes, ban guns, bailouts for teachers, and money for green jobs. Nothing that would really give the idea that she has a plan to salvage the California economy. When it came to economics, she only attacked Fiorina for her time at HP and reminisced about the "good old days" when President Clinton ran a surplus. (Unmentioned by Boxer, of course, is that during those good old days, there was a Republican Congress.)
Also Boxer might have hurt herself with some independents because she lectured patronizingly that sometimes it's right for judges to overturn the will of the people. It did not make for pleasant television.
Finally, though she probably hoped to lay the "Ma'am" fiasco to rest, I doubt her answer will satisfy everyone. Boxer said it was a formal hearing and she wanted the general to call her by her formal title. Fiorina did the classy thing and let it go.
All in all, a wash, I think. But it's the opening gambit for the next series of paid media attacks. Boxer has hardly begun on that front. Fiorina now has to shift from her primary election strategy to the general election.
Original Post is Tucked Below:
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Overnight Open Thread
—Maetenloch
Despite the best efforts of e. coli I'm back with another semi-half-assed ONT.
Well not just any old urine - the urine from elderly type II diabetics with excess sugar. There's gold in them thar Depends!
James Gilpin uses the sugar rich urine of elderly diabetics to make his high-end single malt whisky. From the article: "The source material is acquired from elderly volunteers, including Gilpin's own grandmother, Patricia. The urine is purified in the same way as mains water is purified, with the sugar molecules removed and added to the mash stock to accelerate the whisky's fermentation process. Traditionally, that sugar would be made from the starches in the mash."But as one commenter pointed out if they're adding sugar to it, is it really single malt any more?
Now I'm looking forward to Plasma vodka and Orphan Blood rum.
Meanwhile in other whisky news....
Scottish Scientists Develop Whisky Biofuel
Glenfiddish 64 Year-old Whisky now available. For just $30K a bottle.
Taiwanese Whisky beats Scottish in blind taste test.
And how did Margaret Thatcher lose 20lbs in 2 weeks before her first official photo set at No.10 Downing St? She used her whisky, spinach, and steak and eggs diet.
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Lt. General McInernery: A Determination On Obama's Birth Certificate Is Absolutely Essential For Determining AWOL Army Doc's Guilt
—Ace
Do I believe Obama was born anywhere but Hawaii? No.
Do I believe he has some secret right to conceal documents establishing his legal capacity to hold high office? No, and an even stronger no.
]t is my opinion that LTC Lakin's request for discovery relating to the President's birth records in Hawaii is absolutely essential to determining not merely his guilt or innocence but to reassuring all military personnel once and for all for this President whether his service as Commander in Chief is Constitutionally proper. He is the one single person in the Chain of Command that the Constitution demands proof of natural born citizenship. This determination is fundamental to our Republic, where civilian control over the military is the rule. According to our Constitution, the Commander in Chief must now, in the face of serious-- and widely held-- concerns that he is ineligible, either voluntarily establish his eligibility by authorizing release of his birth records or this court must authorize their discovery. The invasion of his privacy in these records is utterly trivial compared to the issues at stake here.
Invasion of privacy? There is no "invasion of privacy" concern, just the same as there is no invasion of privacy when I take a job and must show my Social Security card to Human Resources on day one.
I'm getting sort of tired of telling other people they're crazy to want to see this.
They're not crazy. They want to cross the t's and dot the i's.
Why the hell is Obama playing games? You wanted the job, dickhead, so go down to Human Resources and put your friggin' Social Security card on the copying machine like every other person.
And frankly -- why is the MFM carrying the water on him? Precisely when did it become "outrageous" for people to ask for a friggin' birth certificate?
What exactly is the hold-up here, Champ? You're starting to make me worry a little here. I vouched for you on this, Sporto, you know? You gonna embarrass me in front of my friends, or are you going to make a ten minute trip to Kinko's?
Rasmussen: Nation's Partisan Split at... 1.2%
—Ace
This isn't unprecedented, but Rasmussen hasn't found it this close since 2005, which was, I guess, the peak of post-9/11 Republican affiliation before the steep drop off which followed.
In August, 35.0% of American Adults identified themselves as Democrats. That’s down nearly half a percentage point from a month ago and is the smallest percentage of Democrats ever recorded in nearly eight years of monthly tracking.At the same time, the number of Republicans grew in August to 33.8%. That’s up two full percentage points from the month before and the largest number of Republicans recorded in 2010.
As has been the case in every month over the past eight years of tracking, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. The gap is currently 1.2 percentage points. That’s the closest the Republicans have been to parity in more than five years, since July 2005.
It’s also the smallest gap between the parties heading into any of the recent campaign seasons....
The biggest advantage ever measured for Democrats was 10.1 percentage points in May 2008. In December 2008, the final full month of the Bush administration, the Democrats held an 8.8-percentage-point advantage.
Even with that 8.8% advantage, in a huge-turnout-for-energized-Democrats year, they could only parlay that to a 4% or 5% advantage in actual votes.
What happens when it's at parity? Wonderful things, wonderful things.
From Captain Ed, who notes that this gets at one of his pet peeves -- the seven, eight, ten, eleven point Democrat advantage "mainstream" media pollsters tend to build into their "forecasts." (Actually -- wishcasts.)
Random Rassmussen Good News: Pennsylvania Governor's contest moves to "Solid GOP," even though currently held by D.
"Insidersaurus:" Anti-Mikulski Ad for Eric Wargotz
—Ace
I'm not a long-shot, Eric Wargotz says. I'm just behind. He points out that Scott Brown was down 19 to Martha Coakley, where as he's only down 16.
He'll need a little luck... but then again, he's going to get a little luck. The only question really is whether he gets an unexpectedly high 48% of the vote and loses, or a more unexpectedly high 51% and wins.
Birther? Eh, well: what the hell.
We can have one Senator who thinks Obama was born overseas. We've currently got 59 who think he was born beside his brother Jesus in Heaven.
SUSPECT SHOT &... DEAD?
ThinkProgress Headline: Purported Eco-Terrorist Angered Over ‘Immigration Pollution And Anchor Baby Filth’
—Ace
Wow, that was so hard to predict that I didn't predict. Oh wait, yes I did.
Focusing exclusively on Point 4 of 12 demands, ThinkProgress turns the Asian Canadian into a White All-American Racist Avenger.
Note, by the way, he's only a "purported" eco-terrorist. His "anger" about immigrants and anchor babies is, however, quite established.
SUSPECT SHOT. And in custody. One of the explosives may have gone off.
By the way, Media Matters For America tweeted this statement:
Discovery Channel hostage-taker is the perpetrator of a crime-not liberal, conservative or a chance to score points
That's funny, because I heard when he walked in to the lobby with his gun drawn he asked the building, "Are you a Muslim?"
Update: NBC saying he's dead?
Too bad. I wanted him to give a whole bunch o' interviews.
More: Lee regretted not thinking to invite Al Gore to one of his protests.
Probably better that he didn't. It would have snowed.
In Honorarim... James Lee's condition is reportedly stable, but dead.
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From the AoSHQ Forecast Desk... (tmi3rd)
—Open Blogger
Hi there, Morons and Moronettes...
In the midst of all our revelry, there is a new little bit that needs to kind of get front and center into the minds of our East Coast folks, and that's Hurricane Earl.
A couple of the hurricane forecast models continue to trend Earl west of where it was projected to go even yesterday. One of those models, ominously, has it going ashore on Long Island.
Below the fold, we're going to have some reminders about hurricane preparedness, as well as a bit of info from Mrs. tmi3rd (a meteorologist and hurricane specialist with the National Weather Service) on hurricanes in general...
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Shots, "Explosive Device" Clears Discovery Channel HQ Near DC
Radical Environmentalist Demanding Discovery Channel Stop Promoting Births of "Human Parasites" (aka "Human Beings")
Beyond Parody: CBS: A "PASSIONATE CAUSE"
—Ace
An "Awakening"... after reading Quinn's book "Ishmael" and then watching Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth.
OMG: CBS begins spinning. Think a rightwinger would be described as merely having a "passionate cause"? Geraghty:
Local CBS talks about gunman's "passionate cause leading to this behavior." Guys, this guy's cause is stopping "disgusting human babies."
Update: MySpace page and picture, thanks to Allen.
Another Update: Another manifesto, this one I think when he was content to merely protest.
Update: Via DC channel 9, here are his demands.
Note: I do not understand how they know this. Fresh Update: This appears well-confirmed by now.
The Discovery Channel MUST broadcast to the world their commitment to save the planet and to do the following IMMEDIATELY:1. The Discovery Channel and it's affiliate channels MUST have daily television programs at prime time slots based on Daniel Quinn's "My Ishmael" pages 207-212 where solutions to save the planet would be done in the same way as the Industrial Revolution was done, by people building on each other's inventive ideas. Focus must be given on how people can live WITHOUT giving birth to more filthy human children since those new additions continue pollution and are pollution. A game show format contest would be in order. Perhaps also forums of leading scientists who understand and agree with the Malthus-Darwin science and the problem of human overpopulation. Do both. Do all until something WORKS and the natural world starts improving and human civilization building STOPS and is reversed! MAKE IT INTERESTING SO PEOPLE WATCH AND APPLY SOLUTIONS!!!!
2. All programs on Discovery Health-TLC must stop encouraging the birth of any more parasitic human infants and the false heroics behind those actions. In those programs' places, programs encouraging human sterilization and infertility must be pushed. All former pro-birth programs must now push in the direction of stopping human birth, not encouraging it.
3. All programs promoting War and the technology behind those must cease. There is no sense in advertising weapons of mass-destruction anymore. Instead, talk about ways to disassemble civilization and concentrate the message in finding SOLUTIONS to solving global military mechanized conflict. Again, solutions solutions instead of just repeating the same old wars with newer weapons. Also, keep out the fraudulent peace movements. They are liars and fakes and had no real intention of ending the wars. ALL OF THEM ARE FAKE! On one hand, they claim they want the wars to end, on the other, they are demanding the human population increase. World War II had 2 Billion humans and after that war, the people decided that tripling the population would assure peace. WTF??? STUPIDITY! MORE HUMANS EQUALS MORE WAR!
4. Civilization must be exposed for the filth it is. That, and all its disgusting religious-cultural roots and greed. Broadcast this message until the pollution in the planet is reversed and the human population goes down! This is your obligation. If you think it isn't, then get hell off the planet! Breathe Oil! It is the moral obligation of everyone living otherwise what good are they??
5. Immigration: Programs must be developed to find solutions to stopping ALL immigration pollution and the anchor baby filth that follows that. Find solutions to stopping it. Call for people in the world to develop solutions to stop it completely and permanently. Find solutions FOR these countries so they stop sending their breeding populations to the US and the world to seek jobs and therefore breed more unwanted pollution babies. FIND SOLUTIONS FOR THEM TO STOP THEIR HUMAN GROWTH AND THE EXPORTATION OF THAT DISGUSTING FILTH! (The first world is feeding the population growth of the Third World and those human families are going to where the food is! They must stop procreating new humans looking for nonexistant jobs!)
6. Find solutions for Global Warming, Automotive pollution, International Trade, factory pollution, and the whole blasted human economy. Find ways so that people don't build more housing pollution which destroys the environment to make way for more human filth! Find solutions so that people stop breeding as well as stopping using Oil in order to REVERSE Global warming and the destruction of the planet!
7. Develop shows that mention the Malthusian sciences about how food production leads to the overpopulation of the Human race. Talk about Evolution. Talk about Malthus and Darwin until it sinks into the stupid people's brains until they get it!!
8. Saving the Planet means saving what's left of the non-human Wildlife by decreasing the Human population. That means stopping the human race from breeding any more disgusting human babies! You're the media, you can reach enough people. It's your resposibility because you reach so many minds!!!
9. Develop shows that will correct and dismantle the dangerous US world economy. Find solutions for their disasterous Ponzi-Casino economy before they take the world to another nuclear war.
10. Stop all shows glorifying human birthing on all your channels and on TLC. Stop Future Weapons shows or replace the dialogue condemning the people behind these developments so that the shows become exposes rather than advertisements of Arms sales and development!
11. You're also going to find solutions for unemployment and housing. All these unemployed people makes me think the US is headed toward more war.
Humans are the most destructive, filthy, pollutive creatures around and are wrecking what's left of the planet with their false morals and breeding culture.
For every human born, ACRES of wildlife forests must be turned into farmland in order to feed that new addition over the course of 60 to 100 YEARS of that new human's lifespan! THIS IS AT THE EXPENSE OF THE FOREST CREATURES!!!! All human procreation and farming must cease!
It is the responsiblity of everyone to preserve the planet they live on by not breeding any more children who will continue their filthy practices. Children represent FUTURE catastrophic pollution whereas their parents are current pollution. NO MORE BABIES! Population growth is a real crisis. Even one child born in the US will use 30 to a thousand times more resources than a Third World child. It's like a couple are having 30 babies even though it's just one! If the US goes in this direction maybe other countries will too!
You know how the media will report this, right?
That's right: Anti-immigration extremist.
Picture: A twitterer says this pic was sent to him by a colleague at Discovery:
I hope they got him before anyone was hurt.
My gut is that it's not terrorism per se, but a disgruntled former employee, or the jilted spouse of one.
"Issues?" I heard from someone watching the news police suspect he has "issues" with the Discovery Channel. I guess so.
But FoxNews is saying that police don't know who he is, and so they have no idea about motive.
"Asian Male." Asian? You know, Pakistan is an Asian country.
I am starting to wonder about my initial guess -- if he's an ex-employee or the spouse of an employee, well, they should have figured that out by now, I would think. He's been in there an hour.
He may be a stranger.
Blasphemous Rumors: Palin Claimed to Announce Bid for Presidency on 9/11 (By Lefties)
—Ace
At Hot Air, Vanity Fair is now just making things up and "reporting" on them.
Ben Smith at Politico noted this about Vanity Fair earlier -- apparently the leftist press thinks that if it's about Palin, any rumor or speculation will count as news.
Moore, a green-eyed blonde who, like Palin, was once an Alaska beauty queen, albeit a few stripes more self-aware, drives her Subaru through downtown Anchorage, steering with one hand, holding a cigarette and her smartphone in the other. When Devon calls to tell her that Glenn Beck has booked the Dena’ina Center, the largest venue in Anchorage, for a speech on September 11, 2010, she sits bolt upright and yells. Immediately, they start trying to figure out what the news might mean. “Listen, listen, listen: Why in the world do you imagine Glenn Beck would come to Anchorage on 9/11? You think he might have a special guest? With a special announcement? Oh,” she says, her whole face falling as the implications of a Palin campaign kickoff hit her, “Jesus Christ.”
Apparently the facts are that Beck will be there in Alaska to speak, as will Palin, and so we're invited to speculate about why.
Like, why were they both in DC on 8/28? That was awfully suspicious, wasn't it? Two politically-oriented people at a big political event?
